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Mr. Rezaei’s announcement of a new “prohibited zone” in the Persian Gulf was another attempt to ratchet up the confrontation.

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Iran’s security chief Mohsen Rezaei recently announced plans to impose a “restricted zone” for shipping in the Persian Gulf that would widen its control of shipping in parts of the waterway.Credit...Mohammed Salem/Reuters

The security chief offered few details about the plan, but Mohamed Ghaderi, a Tehran-based foreign affairs expert, said it was designed to increase the cost for vessels passing through the strait with a U.S. naval escort and warn them they may not be safe even once they do.

“Compliance with Iran’s new rules can be a condition for safe and consequence-free passage,” he said.

These escalatory moves come amid fresh regional turmoil, with Iran’s Houthi militia allies in Yemen launching attacks that wounded dozens in the south of Saudi Arabia on Tuesday, and the kingdom vowing to retaliate. Whether coordinated with Tehran or not, renewed conflict in Yemen would help Iran in its goal of putting more pressure on global energy prices.

Economic crisis

For Iran’s leaders, what they have called a U.S. “economic war” has become a domestic security risk that has prompted them to take a more aggressive stance.

A rising sense of economic despair among Iranians could spark a new wave of anti-government protests. Last December, a currency crisis triggered nationwide demonstrations, which security forces crushed with deadly force.

Iranian officials are anxious that Israel may exploit any discontent to support dissidents or an insurgency, said Hadi Borhani, a professor of Israeli and Middle East studies at the University of Tehran.

He pointed to recent statements by Israel’s defense minister, Israel Katz, and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who said this week that “there is still more to complete. I mean, first and foremost, the toppling of the regime. This regime in Iran — its end is near.”

The Iranian government does not want to wait for Israel to act.

“They believe Iran should change the situation, possibly through a more damaging or aggressive move that can raise regional tension,” Mr. Borhani said.

Some Iranian leaders also believe now is a good moment to act because Mr. Trump will return to war after the midterms anyway. The president will either feel vindicated by an unexpected electoral victory or feel that he has nothing more to lose by pursuing his own strategy, several of the analysts said.

Mr. Sabet, however, expects that worsening global economic conditions will eventually push the Trump administration to ease tensions.

Even though the U.S. naval escorts through the Strait of Hormuz have allowed some oil to move, he said, global crude stockpiles are not being replenished fast enough, and natural gas and other critical oil derivatives are not getting through. Those shortages are likely to inflict more pain on the global economy.

“That is when I see them muddling their way toward some kind of limited or de facto deal,” he said. “Don’t think of it as an M.O.U. plus — think M.O.U. minus.”

Sanam Mahoozi contributed reporting.

Erika Solomon is The Times’s bureau chief for Iran and Iraq.