This Saturday, the people of Iceland will vote on whether the country should begin accession talks with the EU. Iceland had already entered negotiations with the EU in 2010 but the government in Reykjavík suspended them in 2013, mainly due to differences over fisheries policy. Commentators look to the north - and to the future.
The EU can can count itself lucky if Iceland becomes a member, says the Financial Times:
“Iceland is a stable, prosperous and sophisticated democracy with a 39bn GDP. As a member of the European Economic Area – the single market uniting the EU together with Iceland, Liechtenstein and Norway – as well as the Schengen passport-free zone and the European Free Trade Association, it is already largely compliant with EU rules. As a full member, Iceland would be a net contributor to the EU budget. It would rebalance the past eastward expansion trend financially and geographically. Better yet, it would reaffirm the principle of merit-based accession: an important message for current candidates like some western Balkan countries and Ukraine that are struggling with reforms.”
Dagens Nyheter hopes the Icelanders will vote "yes" on 29 August:
“Iceland is safer within the European Community. And it is better to be a full EU member than to be content with being part of the European Economic Area (EEA), as is currently the case. ... For the EU, this island with its volcanic underground would be an ideal addition. Iceland is a wealthy country that could become a net contributor to the EU budget. ... Icelandic EU membership would also bring the Nordic countries closer together. Since Finland and Sweden joined Nato there has been a united Nordic bloc. And if Iceland were to take the plunge there would soon be full Nordic representation in the EU, which would strengthen our influence in Brussels.”
For Icelanders, the fishing industry will be one of the key points in any accession negotiations with the EU, Jutarnji list notes:
“The main 'battleground' for Icelanders is the fishing industry, which is a source of pride and a symbol of Icelandic sovereignty after a series of cod wars with the UK from which Iceland emerged victorious. Many Icelanders fear a loss of sovereignty. ... Iceland has a unique model for managing its fisheries, which account for around 35–40 percent of the country's export earnings. ... EU [Enlargement] Commissioner Marta Kos has spoken of possible 'creative solutions' for fisheries and agriculture. ... However, Icelandic Eurosceptics fear that any concessions Iceland might secure during accession negotiations could lose their force over time.”
“If the vote is 'yes', Iceland will return to the negotiating table with the EU, and Brussels will have to decide how to resume the process that was suspended more than a decade ago. As the country is already well integrated into the single market and has done much of the groundwork in previous negotiations, things could move forward relatively quickly, provided that compromises can be reached on contentious issues, particularly fisheries. A 'no' vote, on the other hand, would mean that the issue would likely disappear from Iceland's political agenda for the foreseeable future. The Frostadóttir government itself is framing the vote as a choice between 'now or never'.”
The head of the US Central Intelligence Agency John Ratcliffe was in Moscow on Tuesday for talks. The visit was unofficial and unannounced, but a large US military cargo aircraft flying from Washington to Moscow did not escape public attention. The Kremlin later confirmed the visit, saying there had been "talks between the intelligence services". Most media outlets see a connection with the war in Ukraine.
De Standaard speculates that the US is seeking to prevent an escalation of the war in Ukraine:
“Ratcliffe's visit comes at a time when the war in Ukraine is intensifying and looking increasingly hopeless. ... Ballistic missile strikes, in particular, are hitting Ukraine hard. But Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian territory are also becoming increasingly brazen. More and more Russian civilians are being killed. And that is making Putin angrier and angrier. Last weekend he said that Ukraine had opened Pandora's box: 'Russia's measures will become more painful and destructive. There will always be retaliation.'”
Ratcliffe's visit was driven by fears of an unprecedented threat, writes La Repubblica:
“In recent days, reports have emerged suggesting that the Kremlin is planning a provocation against Nato and intends to test the alliance's cohesion: these are reports that have been circulating in Europe for months, but this time they were attributed to US intelligence and not denied. Bloomberg goes even further. It quotes Russian officials talking of a missile escalation against Ukrainian cities. And they even go so far as to suggest that Putin might be considering using a tactical nuclear bomb.”
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